Preview: Iga Swiatek vs. Sofia Kenin – prediction, form, head-to-head

Despite entering this year’s Wimbledon as the No. 1 seed, Iga Swiatek aims to avoid slipping up against the tricky test of Sofia Kenin on Tuesday.

The four-time Roland Garros winner is the undoubted favourite, but her first-round match at the Championships is not a forgone conclusion against the 2020 Australian Open champion.

Match preview
Swiatek is not as fierce a proposition on grass as on her favourite clay surface, giving opponents some hope outside Court Philippe-Chatrier.

While the French Open champion is three weeks removed from retaining her Roland Garros title, the world No. 1 seed has not played any tournament pre-Wimbledon, possibly giving opponents a chance as she acclimates to the different surface.

The crossover complication from clay to grass allied with the Polish star’s Paris Olympics ambition means the 23-year-old could initially struggle at the Championships as she seeks to better last year’s run to the quarter-finals.
That represented Swiatek’s best performance at Wimbledon, where she had previously exited at the first, fourth and third rounds before the improved 2023.

Given the different winners in the past seven years, nothing is guaranteed for the women’s No. 1, who aims to outdo last year’s run despite minimal grass-court action.

However, the top seed’s current level is unknown having not played any grass-court tournament in the lead-up to the third Slam of the year.

The four-time French Open champion aims to avoid her first first-round exit at a major since exiting early in her maiden Wimbledon appearance in 2019 but faces an opponent well-versed in giant-killing.

Kenin stunned Coco Gauff in last year’s first round, defeating the American in three sets en route to the third round before exiting to former world No. 3 Elina Svitolina.

Her 2023 first-round scalp was all the more stunning as she had made it to the tournament via qualifying, but the perceived difference in class did not prevent her from playing without fear against Gauff.

Now ranked 48th, the 25-year-old aims for an encore when she pits her wits against a motivated player seeking a first Wimbledon crown.

However, the American’s average grass-court run in Eastbourne suggests defeating the world No. 1 on Tuesday is a long shot.

Head To Head
French Open (2020) – Final: Swiatek 6-4 6-1

Australian Open (2024) – First round: Swiatek 7-6 (2) 6-2
Swiatek and Kenin have previously met twice on Tour — never on grass — with the Polish star notching victories in both, securing triumphs over Kenin in straights in the 2020 Roland Garros final and this year’s Australian Open first round.

Swiatek’s singles career unsurprisingly trumps her opponent, with 22 WTA titles superior to five for Kenin, who typically flourishes in the doubles where she has four title wins.

In 2024, the No. 1 seed’s 45 wins from 49 (92%) significantly exceeds the American’s six victories from 20 (30%).

Much will depend on Swiatek finding her feet on grass swiftly, having not played a pre-Wimbledon tournament, and that uncertainty points to the Polish star dropping a set in her first-round encounter.